US-Russia Trade: A Game of Tariffs and Strategies
The trade exchange between the United States and Russia is quite limited. From January to November 2024, the total trade between the two nations reached $3.37 billion, representing just 0.07% of overall trade, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. exports to Russia amounted to $488 million, while imports from Russia totaled $2.88 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.39 billion for the U.S.
What does Trump intend? U.S. President Donald Trump warned his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, that it is necessary to reach an agreement to stop the war in Ukraine "immediately" or face tariffs and sanctions. “If we do not reach a 'deal' soon, I will have to raise taxes and impose tariffs and sanctions on any Russian product that enters the United States,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has implemented several sanctions, including trade restrictions on certain products, particularly oil and gas. However, these measures have not succeeded in ending the conflict between Putin and Zelensky. Still, there has been a notable decrease in trade between the United States and Russia, especially in imports. In 2021, before the conflict, the U.S. imported Russian goods worth $29.64 billion, which was $14.44 billion in 2017. By 2023, imports plummeted to just $4.57 billion. “It’s unclear how Trump plans to pressure Russia with tariffs, given that bilateral trade was already low and has drastically fallen since the start of the war in Ukraine three years ago,” commented Lucian Kim, a senior analyst on Ukraine at the International Crisis Group. Trump’s motives for intervening in this conflict are uncertain. Tariffs have become his favorite “weapon” for negotiating political and geopolitical issues. “In his view, it’s the ideal strategy to make countries comply,” said Aribel Contreras, coordinator of the Global Business degree program at Ibero-American University. “Essentially, what Trump seeks is to open the negotiation table between Russia and Ukraine. He wants to fulfill his campaign promise. If he manages to resolve the conflict and progresses on other issues, he could be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize. There is a personal ego issue, but beyond that, it is more about geopolitics than trade,” she added.
It makes little sense for him to propose tariffs on Russia when it’s already facing economic sanctions due to the conflict with Ukraine. “The interests and potential trades between the nations are uncertain,” pointed out Turenna Ramírez, leading partner in the International Trade, Customs, and Regulations practice at Holland & Knight. “Trump’s warnings will not impact Putin as they would with Mexico or Canada. However, the U.S. could strengthen sanctions on the export of raw materials from Russia and bolster those already in place,” Kim stressed. Analysts pointed out that Trump has boasted of having a good relationship with Putin, so it’s not ruled out that he will seek to decrease U.S. support for Ukraine, as Joe Biden has already done. “For Putin, it would be a win if the U.S. stopped backing Ukraine with military assistance,” said Turenna Ramírez. “Trump seems uninterested in continuing to support Ukraine,” emphasized Ramsés Pech, an energy and economics analyst at Caraiva and Associates-Leon & Pech Architects. “Trump has a business mindset,” so in addition to proposing tariffs, he's promising lower taxes and incentives to attract companies to the United States.
Other Interests
Unlike during the World Wars, where the goal was territorial dominance, we are now witnessing “economic and energy wars, where the aim is to weaken the economies of resource-rich nations, thereby controlling areas like technology and artificial intelligence,” detailed Pech. In Trump’s priorities for a possible second term, China ranks first, followed by Mexico; then come Panama, Venezuela, and Cuba, as agreed by the interviewees. “Trump aims to distance Russia from China. Why? Because the U.S. is in the midst of a trade war with China,” concluded Contreras. With information from Fernanda Hernández.
Geopolitical tensions directly affect global trade flows. As sanctions and restrictions arise, it is vital for nations to diversify their supply sources and seek new markets. This is not only a risk mitigation strategy but can also offer growth opportunities in previously unnoticed regions. Investing in strong trade relationships is essential for long-term economic resilience.
