Growth Outlook and Inflation Trends in Mexico

Experts from the private sector have lowered their expectations for the Mexican economy, anticipating a growth of 1.4% in 2024 and 1.17% in 2025. According to the median estimates from 41 analysis groups, both national and international, compiled between October 17 and 30, it is noted that overall inflation will continue to exceed the established target of 3%, with projections showing it could close at 4.45% by the end of 2024.

Regarding the Bank of Mexico's interest rate, it is anticipated that the central bank will raise it to 10% by the end of this year and to 8% at the close of next year. It is expected that on November 14, Banxico will announce its monetary policy decision, where it is likely to reduce the rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 10.25%. Although overall inflation has shown signs of decline, during the first half of October, non-core inflation, which includes more volatile products, has seen increases.

As the Mexican economy faces a challenging outlook for the next couple of years, authorities and consumers must remain vigilant regarding the strategies implemented to control inflation. It is crucial to maintain a balance between interest rates and economic growth to foster stability and confidence among both markets and consumers.