Mexico's Plan; Optimistic Investments, But Trust Must Be Secured

An adjustment in the investment goals of Plan Mexico, presented by President Claudia Sheinbaum, has set it on a more realistic and achievable path. However, experts point out that there is still a crucial question to be resolved: how will legal certainty for investors be guaranteed? A preliminary draft circulated before the official launch of the plan proposed a target of $100 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2030, a goal that many considered unrealistic. Instead, it was decided to prioritize a sustained increase in the proportion of investment relative to GDP: surpassing 25% by 2026 and reaching 28% by 2030.

Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard emphasized that the president carefully examined the figures and adjusted many of the targets. “She asked us questions about aspects that sometimes we didn’t even have on our radar,” he acknowledged.

From Trust to Growth The goal for investment to exceed 25% of GDP by 2026 is interpreted as a message of confidence in a context marked by Judicial Reform and the elimination of autonomous agencies, comments Adriana García, head of economic analysis at Mexico's ¿Cómo Vamos? According to data from Inegi, in the third quarter of 2024, investment reached 24.3% of GDP at current prices, thus getting closer to the target for 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2011, investment peaked at 26%, suggesting that reaching 28% by 2030 would be ambitious but not unattainable. For García, basing goals on investment as a percentage of GDP is more pragmatic than aspiring to inflated FDI figures. “This approach focuses on improving infrastructure, adopting technology, and transforming the economy, instead of solely depending on high amounts of foreign investment,” she adds. Measures like Plan Mexico or initiatives related to industrial policy should focus on crucial variables to attract investment, regardless of Donald Trump's arrival at the White House. Ana Gutiérrez, coordinator of foreign trade and labor markets at IMCO, notes that while the United States is the largest investor in Mexico, accounting for over 40% of FDI, there are also significant investments from Spain, other EU countries, and Japan. “It’s essential to observe Mexico's relationship with its trading partners, especially those in the USMCA, while also keeping in mind the issue of infrastructure and the national economic structure, where there is much to be done to become more attractive for both foreign and local investments.”

What About Legal Certainty? Although Plan Mexico provides a clear direction, specialists warn that it does not address how to guarantee the legal certainty that private investors—who contribute the majority of total investment—require. This not only involves respecting contracts but also ensuring public safety, access to energy, and necessary inputs for operations. Private sector participation becomes essential to achieving the outlined goals, as public resources are limited and must be directed towards priorities like health, education, and security. The strategic investments in Plan Mexico carry high risks but also a potential for profitability that can only be realized with the trust and collaboration of the private sector. Both experts agree that legal certainty is crucial and that it will not necessarily be resolved solely through the pillars of Plan Mexico. It also depends on the signals the Mexican government sends and the changes in the judiciary and the elimination of autonomous agencies. Among the positive aspects noted by the IMCO expert is the push for regional content, not only in certain sectors but also in exports, an issue that has stagnated in recent decades in Mexico. “I think these elements could be seen as favorable. However, success undoubtedly depends on the implementation of actions and the level of investments in productive infrastructure and strategic sectors,” Gutiérrez concludes.

In conclusion, the critical challenge that Plan Mexico faces is the construction of a regulatory framework that provides the necessary trust to investors. Without this essential element, regardless of how ambitious the growth targets may be, the potential for investment could be compromised. Collaboration between the public and private sectors is fundamental to transforming these goals into sustainable realities, and time will be a key factor in measuring success.