Public Revenue Projections for 2025: A Focus on Income Tax and VAT
The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit anticipates reaching 8.055 trillion pesos in revenue by 2025. Of this amount, it is estimated that 54% will come from the collection of Income Tax (ISR) and Value Added Tax (IVA), with a total expected to exceed 4.321 trillion pesos, as detailed in the Federal Income Law Initiative for 2025. The projected revenue from these two taxes represents 3.7 times more than the estimated income from oil revenues, which is expected to be 1.142 trillion pesos. In comparison to the approved figures for 2024, a real annual increase of 2.5% is expected in ISR collections and 2.0% for IVA. On the other hand, the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS), which is applied to fuels and health-harming products such as sugary drinks, tobacco, and calorie-dense foods, will contribute 713 billion pesos to government coffers.
In total, tax revenues are expected to reach 5.296 trillion pesos next year, accounting for 66% of all public revenue, according to the General Criteria of Economic Policy presented by Secretary of Finance Rogelio Ramírez de la O to the Legislative Power in the Chamber of Deputies. This increase in revenue is attributed to the anticipated greater dynamism in economic activity and actions to improve taxpayer compliance and combat tax fraud, as mentioned by the Ministry of Finance in the General Criteria of Economic Policy for 2025. Additionally, the import tax is projected to grow by 8.8%, aiming to protect the domestic industry “and aligning with the trade policies of our main partners.” Mexico has adjusted its tax legislation, implementing tariffs ranging from 5% to 50% on 544 tariff items affecting products such as steel, aluminum, footwear, plastics, glass, and ceramics, as emphasized by the Ministry of Finance.
The total revenue estimates for 2025 exceed the amount approved in the 2024 Income Law by 415 billion pesos, with a real variation of 3.3%. Tax revenues are expected to grow by 3% in real terms, adding another 144.7 billion pesos, while oil revenues will increase by 4.3% (49.4 billion pesos). For the coming year, the federal government projects 374 billion pesos in non-tax revenue, coming from rights, benefits, and products, partly due to the proposed reform to the Federal Rights Law (LFD) 2025 and the inclusion of specific rights, reimbursements, and capital recoveries. This, according to the Ministry of Finance, “reinforces the pressure on the expected resource station” and “provides greater transparency in the management of public resources.”
It is crucial for the government to maintain a focus on transparency and efficient resource management, especially with the projected increase in revenue collection. The optimal use of these revenues will not only strengthen the economy but also contribute to the development of social programs and investment in infrastructure, which is vital for fostering sustainable economic growth in the country.
