The Return of Trump and His Allies: Challenges for the Mexican Economy
“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is 'tariff,' it's my favorite,” declares Donald Trump, making his protectionist stance clear. With his new term on the horizon, he promises to take a firmer stance, relying on the appointments of Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative and Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce, both closely tied to his tariff ideology. Trump's threats of new tariffs loom as a global challenge, especially for his closest trading partners. Mexico and Canada face a significant hurdle with the upcoming review of the USMCA in 2026, where this issue could heighten tensions.
Greer: A Key Player on Trump's Team
Trump sees Greer as the cornerstone of his trade policies for his return to the White House in 2025. During his first term, the team member from King & Spalding's International Trade group played a crucial role in implementing tariffs on China and other countries, aiming to combat unfair trade practices. He was also part of the transition from NAFTA to the USMCA, which, according to Trump, benefited American workers. Greer worked under Bob Lighthizer in the previous administration and is viewed as the mastermind behind the aggressive tariff strategy. His new role in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative involves reducing the trade deficit, supporting manufacturing, agriculture, and services, and opening more markets for exports. One of the biggest challenges is the growing trade deficit, which reached $734.884 billion from January to October of this year. China ($245.4 billion), Mexico ($141.9 billion), and Vietnam ($102.2 billion) are the primary contributors to this deficit. Mexico, constantly in Trump’s crosshairs on this issue, has already been labeled by him as a subsidy and is warned that the country could face tariffs of up to 25%. “Jamieson’s deep understanding of economic, industrial, and trade issues, along with his work to counter China's efforts to undermine U.S. economic security, will be crucial in his role. We are convinced that he understands how countries like Mexico, Vietnam, and the EU are taking advantage of the open U.S. economy without providing made-in-America products in return,” states the Coalition for a Prosperous America, recognizing Greer after his appointment. An analysis from Holland & Knight indicates that Greer will continue to lean on Lighthizer and use the tariff policy as tools to influence the behavior of trading partners and achieve concessions in trade treaty negotiations.
Lutnick and His Tariff Agenda
Howard Lutnick, President and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, will serve as Secretary of Commerce in Trump’s new administration. His task is to advance the tariff and trade agenda, taking charge of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. “Howard has created a very sophisticated process and system that will allow us to have the best administration this country has ever seen,” says Trump about this member of his team. As head of one of the largest brokerage firms on Wall Street, Lutnick shares Trump’s vision and has committed to unlocking the country’s economic potential. Regarding tariffs, he argues they are essential to revitalizing American industry and believes they could generate significant revenue. “Some countries will choose to negotiate with us and form fair trade relationships. Let’s build in the U.S., employ our workforce, and generate revenue through tariffs that balance our budget. It’s a win-win for the country,” explains the businessman. As for the USMCA, Holland & Knight notes that it is still unclear what the Department of Commerce will do in the review, but Lutnick has brought up Mexico in his comments about the automotive sector, in which the country excels in manufacturing and exports to the U.S. “It’s ridiculous that Ireland has a trade surplus with us. We don’t make anything here anymore; even the best American cars are made in Mexico. Once we put an end to this, Canada will rise to power again. You’ll be surprised!” warns Lutnick. Although Trump has selected these two figures, they still need Senate approval, and starting January 20 of next year, both they and Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard’s team will have to face off in negotiations.
This compendium of Trump’s and his allies' protectionist policies highlights the importance of trade diplomacy in a globalized world. As challenges in the USMCA approach, it’s essential for Mexico to prepare to negotiate with intelligence and strategy, prioritizing its economic interests while not neglecting the development of its national industry. The experience of Lutnick and Greer could be a blessing or a challenge, depending on how negotiations are handled and whether a path of collaboration rather than conflict is explored. In times of economic uncertainty, diversifying markets and seeking strategic alliances will be key to maintaining stability and growth in the country.
