Everything Mexico Sells to the U.S.; From Fruits to Precious Jewelry
The 32 states of Mexico benefit greatly from trade with the United States. Exports range from fruits and vegetables to auto parts, and even less conventional products. A curious example is that diamonds rank third among the goods exported from Yucatán to the northern country. Additionally, beer is another star in this exchange, with Aguascalientes standing out as a major exporter, while Oaxaca is known for its other types of alcoholic beverages. Mexico doesn't just send products; it also imports from the U.S., leading in auto parts and machinery, while corn plays a critical role, being purchased in large quantities by Mexico. This grain is essential for states like Jalisco, Guanajuato, Puebla, and Yucatán, where it is among their primary products.
The Most Vulnerable States to Tariffs
According to information from the Ministry of Economy, the states that depend most on sales to the United States are Campeche (96.4%), Tamaulipas (96.1%), and Chihuahua (96%). On the opposite end, those with the lowest proportion of shipments to the neighboring country include Quintana Roo (33.9%), Puebla (62.1%), and Veracruz (62.3%). The trade relationship between the two nations is tightly interwoven, raising concerns about the possibility of tariffs announced by Donald Trump. Some of these taxes are already being applied to key sectors like steel and aluminum, causing anxiety over their impact on local economies. According to Standard & Poor’s, the states most exposed to risk are those with a high dependence on export manufacturing, especially in the northern and central parts of the country. Entities with more than 20% of their GDP tied to at-risk industries include Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, and Querétaro. The sectors that could feel the most impact include transportation (machines and equipment, motor vehicles, and trailers), electrical equipment, and basic metals (like steel and aluminum). The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, along with the imminent review of the USMCA, could limit private investment in Mexico and affect growth in states dependent on manufacturing. According to HR Ratings, Tamaulipas is the most resilient state to changes in tariff policy due to the diversification of its exports. Conversely, Quintana Roo faces a lower risk since its international sales make up a small portion of its GDP and primarily target Caribbean nations. The states that would suffer the most from tariffs on steel, aluminum, and manufactured goods are Coahuila and Nuevo León, where these industries are critical. If tariffs impact the automotive sector, Aguascalientes, Puebla, Guanajuato, and San Luis Potosí, where this industry is essential, would see significant effects. The future of trade between Mexico and the United States is linked to how the situation with these tariffs evolves and the adaptability of the states to a more restrictive trade environment.
In summary, the Mexican economy is intrinsically linked to trade with the United States. Dependence on certain sectors can be a double-edged sword; on one hand, exports can be leveraged, but on the other, there is the risk of being hit by changes in tariff policies. It is essential for states to diversify their economies to mitigate these risks and promote more sustained growth.
